As of July 14th this year 23 municipalities in the most severely affected areas in northeastern and east central Alberta have declared agricultural disaster due to drought. Many are asking whether this is a return of the devastating 2001-2002 drought that became a natural disaster across Canada. According to David Sauchyn, a noted expert on the impacts of global climate change on the Canadian Prairies in an interview with the CBC, "These models suggest that we should be getting drought — severe drought — more often. So the weather of this decade fits with those model projections."

With the arrival of rain in July, many Albertans may forget how dry the spring of 2009 was. The recent rains may "green up" our surroundings, but the effects of the dry spring will affect Alberta for a time to come. These effects raise questions about Alberta's ability to cope with drought as part of increased climate variability heading into the future. The effects of drought also affect financial security. On June 10^th, Premier Ed Stelmach said that drought could prevent the government from cutting $200 million from this year's budget deficit in order to compensate for forest firefighting costs and financial support for farmers. During Canada's last major drought in 2001-2002, considered one of the most expensive natural disasters in the nation's history, production from Alberta's farming community was estimated to be reduced by $1.2 billion.

Just how bad are the effects of the drought of 2009?

The agricultural sector monitors moisture very closely, and has felt a great impact from this year's drought. Agriculture Financial Services Corporation (AFSC) Crop Conditions report as of June 18^th reported that sub soil moisture on 58 percent of Alberta's cropland rated as "poor," the lowest rating possible while 33 percent was considered "fair". Only nine percent rated as "good" and no regions reported "excellent", the highest rating. (Agriculture Financial Services Corporation, 2009).

As a result, over two-thirds of Alberta's pastured areas are reported as poor. AFSC also reports widespread conversion of hay and cereal crops to pasture. Crops that survived the drought period are now 10 to 14 days behind schedule increasing the risk of further loss if there are early frosts in September.

A declaration of drought, however, does not compel a specified response from either the federal or provincial governments. Such a declaration does have the benefit of raising awareness of the situation with county residents and others in the agricultural community. Although the Emergency Management Act does have provisions for the "declaration of a local emergency," giving councils the authority to control the movement of people, or to use private equipment to protect people and property during an event such as a flood or wildfire, drought is not applicable under this provision of the Act.

Agriculture Financial Services Corporation, which acts as an arms-length agency that insures Alberta farmers received about 2,000 calls from farmers seeking insurance on failed crops, by early July.

Sustainable Resource Development reports that since the start of the fire season, Alberta has responded to over 800 wildfires in the province's forests, burning more than 7,000 hectares of land. This represents an almost 15 percent increase in the number of wildfires, compared to the five year average of 706 wildfires for the same period.

Effects on aquatic ecosystems

Aquatic ecosystems are also stressed by the recent drought. Native fish species that prefer cold, clear, clean water such as West slope cutthroat trout and Bull trout are at risk when stream temperature rises. Additionally, less water in streams can translate to increases in water temperature. This magnifies the threat to native fish species, and also increases the probability of algae blooms in areas of still or slow moving water.

Increased climate variability

This year's drought may in fact be part of a larger pattern drawing from both historical cycles and human generated climate change. In their 2008 report for Natural Resources Canada, From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, David Sauchyn and Suren Kulshreshtha, argue that across the prairies future climate conditions include more frequent drought, but also increased precipitation in the form of rain and higher probability of severe flooding. The report makes the case that extreme events, and an expanded range of year-to-year departures from climate norms, represent greater risks to the economy of the Prairies than a simple shift in average conditions. As the range of weather changes, business certainty will diminish for industries such as agriculture dependent on known ranges of weather variability.

As the costs of drought increases, some experts point to the need for institutional adaption to break the pattern of patching up the damage caused by drought and other weather events. How provinces adapt to these changes is a pivotal challenge. Provincial measures such as increasing crop damage insurance allowances and increasing fire-fighting capacity are important, but Sauchyn and Kulshreshtha point to institutional change as the key to adapting to climate change. Recent adaptations across the prairie provinces, such as minimum tillage practices and crop diversification are steps towards drought resilience and adaptation.

According to Stewart Wells, President of the National Farmers Union, in an interview with the CBC, "In Canada we haven't come to terms with that and we haven't developed any decent programming that's actually in place and predictable to deal with these sorts of disasters."

In 2005, the federal government issued a report recommending how Canada should combat future drought based on lessons learned from the 2001-2002 drought. The report made a number of recommendations including adopting more and better measures so that water users can better adapt to drought conditions. The report concluded that previous measure to adapt to drought had not fully dealt with the impacts and Canada remained vulnerable in this regard.

Finally, additional steps need to be taken to improve Alberta's response to climate change. One such step is addressing the disparity municipal planning to address water scarcity (See Alberta's Urban Municipalities Set to Increase Water Conservation Efforts). While cities like Calgary, have action plans to reduce water consumption to address conditions such as drought, smaller municipalities are working hard to shrink this gap to address Water For Life's target of increasing efficiency by 30 percent. Addressing such challenges is crucial for Alberta to address increased droughts and flooding associated with increased climate variability.

Sources

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. January 2005. Lessons Learned from the Canadian Drought Years of 2001 and 2002: Synthesis Report. (accessed July 15, 2009).

Agriculture Financial Services Corporation. 2009. Alberta Crop Reports.
Alberta Crop Conditions Report # 5, As of July 2, 2009. Agriculture Financial Services Corporation (accessed July 9th, 2009).

Drought: Cattle producers scramble as feed wiped out. The Calgary Herald. July 12, 2009. (accessed July 15, 2009).

Government of Alberta. 2009. Lightning sparks a rash of wildfires over the last 48 hours. Press Release. (accessed July 13, 2009)

Parched Prairies: Latest drought a sign of things to come? CBC News. (accessed July 10, 2009).

Sauchyn, D. and Kulshreshtha, S. (2008): Prairies; in From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007, edited by D.S. Lemmen, F.J. Warren, J. Lacroix and E. Bush; Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, p. 275-328. (accessed July 8th, 2009)