This summer, talking about the weather may leave you parched. For approximately 40 years, Alberta's surface water supplies have been declining, while municipal, agricultural, and industrial demands for water have been increasing. Droughts and declines in runoff are expected to get more frequent and severe in Alberta. Furthermore, Albertans will have less water because of the steady shrinking of glaciers that feed major Alberta rivers with meltwaters. 

While flow in a river is generally variable from year to year, it can fall below long-term averages for a number of years because of decreased water supply caused by drought or increased human water use. The long-term trends and changes in water supply are the most important because they indicate a need to carefully manage our freshwater supply so that we don't suffer from water shortages. According to measurements of flow in Alberta rivers, the last 10 years have been among the worst on record for long-term drought conditions. For example, the flow in the Bow River at Calgary in 2008 was less than 50% of the long-term average, and for the ice-free season it was almost 60% less than the long-term average.  In 2009, annual and ice-free flows at Calgary were 16% and 20% less than the long-term averages, respectively. Further north in the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton, annual and ice-free flow in 2009 were 30% and 40% less than the long-term average, respectively. Following on the heels one of the warmest and driest winters on record, it is likely that this summer will be yet another dry one.

This summer, Alberta Environment expects mountain runoff to be below average or much below average for most of the river basins in southern and central Alberta, even if normal amounts of rain and snow fall during the rest of the winter and the summer. Because of this, the flows in all the major river basins in south and central Alberta also are expected to be lower than average this summer. This is especially troublesome in southern Alberta, where reservoir storage is currently 62% of total capacity. Less rain and snow than normal — typical for Alberta in an El Niño year like this one — means less water to feed our rivers, thereby restricting our water supplies. Consequently, we may face restrictions on non-critical water use in cities, further losses of our natural and urban forests, decreases in water quality for lakes and rivers, and declines in general ecosystem health. All of these result not only in our reduced enjoyment of our natural areas and waters and the services they provide, but also increased expenses related to things such as water and sewage treatment or increased frequency and severity of forest fires and a decreased ability of environmental systems to withstand further harm.

Extended droughts in Alberta mean water shortages for human use. If surface water supplies are very low this year, then prioritization of water by licence date will be implemented under the water rights allocation system known as First-In-Time, First-In-Right (FITFIR). This means there will be winners with full access to water and losers whose access to water is severely restricted, depending on their position on the priority list. While drought is often considered to affect farmers' crops and livestock most, it also affects other groups and economic sectors that rely upon water. Alberta is particularly susceptible to the harmful effects of extended drought because we rely strongly on water-intensive industries like heavy oil extraction and processing in north and central Alberta and agriculture in the south.

The current drought could reflect a return to historical times, when serious droughts each century extended as long as several decades, or a new status quo that involves significant climate warming in Alberta. Because of Alberta's reliance upon economic growth from water-intensive industries, policies and planning for ecosystem protection, water management, and development must reflect the environmental, social, and economic risks we face that relate to the risk of declining water supplies.

Sources

Alberta Environment. 2010. Provincial Reservoir Storage. Edmonton, AB: Government of Alberta. (Accessed April 11, 2010).

Alberta Environment. 2010. Water supply Outlook March 2010. Edmonton, AB: Government of Alberta. (Accessed April 11, 2010).

Demuth, M. N.  and A. Pietroniro. 2002. The Impact of Climate Change on the Glaciers of the Canadian Rocky Mountain Eastern Slopes and Implications for Water Resource Adaptation in the Canadian Prairies. Geological Survey of Canada Open File 4322.

Environment Canada. 2010. Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin — Winter 2009/2010, Ottawa, ON: Environment Canada. (Accessed April 11, 2010).

Schindler, D. W. and W. F. Donahue. 2006. A Case Study of the Saskatchewan River System. Paper read at 5th Biennial Rosenberg International Forum on Water Policy: Managing Upland Watersheds in an Era of Global Change, at Banff, AB, Canada, pp. 208-227 (Accessed April 11, 2010).

Schindler, D. W. and W. F. Donahue. 2006. An impending water crisis in Canada's western prairie provinces. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 103 (19): 7210-7216.